Venezuela Libre?

A fact-based analysis of the current political situation in Venezuela - viewed from a neutral perspective and critically examined.

“Venezuela libre” – the slogan against dictator Maduro. Now he has been captured, but will the country really be free?

It's July 28, 2024, when the first news of the presidential election in Venezuela is published: "Nicolas Maduro re-elected president!" I can hardly believe it.

At that point, I had already been living in Bucaramanga, a Colombian city not far from the Venezuelan border, for over a year. In the last ten years, many people from Venezuela have settled here, having fled due to a lack of opportunities in their own country. I have made many friends among them; Venezuelans are very cheerful, approachable, and open-hearted people.

Through these friendships, I also realized that absolutely no one would voluntarily vote for Nicolás Maduro to be re-elected president. Many Venezuelans returned specifically for the 2024 elections – from the US, Europe, and neighboring Latin American countries – only to cast their votes for the opposition candidate, Edmundo González.

Nicolás Maduro became president in 2013 after the death of his predecessor, Hugo Chávez. Chávez introduced socialism to Venezuela in 1999, similar to Russia, China, and Cuba—in Venezuela, this is now referred to as "Chavismo." Under Chávez, government spending increased from US$10 billion to US$160 billion, creating many new jobs and significantly improving Venezuela's infrastructure, education, and overall prosperity for a time.

Nicolas Maduro in front of the portrait of his predecessor Hugo Chavez. “Chavismo” worked well in Venezuela for a long time—until oil prices collapsed in 2013.

The catch: 95% of government spending was financed by oil revenues. Venezuela possesses the world's largest oil reserves and could therefore easily afford the experiment of socialism during periods of high oil prices, which lasted for more than a decade. However, a stabilization fund like the one in Norway was never established, and the economy did not diversify beyond oil (unlike, for example, the Arab states).

Then, in 2013, almost simultaneously with the transfer of power from Chavez to Maduro, when the price of oil began to fall sharply, the system began to falter. The new president, Maduro, resorted to panicked measures and forced the central bank to print ever more money. The result was hyperinflation, which reached 181% in 2015 and peaked at a staggering 130,000% in 2018.

Hundreds of thousands of people from all walks of life lost their entire savings. The Bolivar was temporarily abolished, and to this day, most people in Venezuela pay in US dollars or even gold. The prices of imported food skyrocketed, and hospitals lacked not only medicine but also all kinds of resources.

Over 8 million people, 35% of the population, were forced to leave the country between 2014 and 2022.

And the government? It cracks down hard. Protests are met with violence and often live ammunition. Hundreds of people, including students and minors, are killed during demonstrations. People are frequently forced to show their mobile phones to the police in the street, and if material critical of the government is found, they face imprisonment and torture. Political opponents are arbitrarily arrested, politically disqualified, banned from practicing their professions, or even forced into exile. The political opposition is effectively eliminated.

Maria Corina Machado is a notable exception. Born in Caracas in 1967, she became known in 2002 as a co-founder of the electoral NGO Súmate , which supported the recall referendum against Hugo Chávez. Since then, she has been considered a dangerous opponent of Chavismo. As a member of parliament (2011–2014), she pursued an uncompromising course of confrontation against Chávez and later Maduro. The regime revoked her mandate based on dubious "corruption allegations" and later banned her from political activity.

Maria Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez - International observers agree that they received over 70% of the vote in the 2024 presidential election. Nevertheless, Maduro crowned himself president.

Unlike many other opposition leaders, Machado did not go into exile and refused any negotiations with the regime. Precisely because she is considered incorruptible, unwilling to be blackmailed, and principled, she is being fiercely opposed by the regime. But Machado refuses to be defeated, likely in part because she now has the support of the United States.

In 2023, despite a ban, she won the opposition primaries with around 90% of the vote and became the clearly legitimate leader of the anti-Maduro movement. While Maduro was able to prevent her from running in the 2024 presidential election, Machado allied herself with the officially sanctioned opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez. The alliance gained enormous popularity among Venezuelans, and it was clear even before the elections that Maduro would never have a chance of re-election under fair conditions.

Maduro is therefore excluding all internationally recognized monitoring committees from the 2024 presidential elections and installing his own people to evaluate the elections.

So when I read the headlines that July night in 2024, I knew it could be nothing other than election fraud. The protests followed swiftly—while in Venezuela itself, protests had to be conducted with caution to avoid paying with one's life, social media was ablaze. The anger and discontent among Venezuelans were immense. My friends put the Venezuelan flag, underlined in red capital letters, as their WhatsApp profile picture: "VENEZUELA LIBRE!"—Free Venezuela.

The election results have also drawn international criticism, with important countries such as the USA not recognizing Maduro's re-election.

Maduro, however, is doing what he has always done: he is violently suppressing the protests and clinging to power with an iron fist. Maria Corina Machado remains in the country, but must remain extremely cautious and avoid public appearances for her own safety.

Her name reappears in the international media in October 2025 when she is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her courage and political work in Venezuela.

Machado must undertake a secret, adventurous escape from Venezuela, as she is prevented from leaving by the Maduro regime. Her escape involves a 12-hour speedboat ride, a disguise, and a private jet to evade the regime.

In Oslo, a surprise followed: Maria Machado dedicated her Nobel Prize to US President Donald Trump. This was surprising at first glance because the two politicians pursued particularly different socio-political lines.

Maria Corina Machado in Oslo receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. To the surprise and outrage of many, she dedicated the prize to US President Donald Trump.

But Machado's strategy quickly becomes clear. She wants to persuade the US government to support her in the coup against the Maduro regime. For the US, this is indeed a lucrative proposition. On the one hand, Venezuela's oil reserves can help the US reduce its massive national debt over the next few years.

And then there are the rare earth elements such as coltan, neodymium, lanthanum, tin, nickel, rhodium, titanium, and many other valuable raw materials. Rare earth elements are not called rare earth elements because they are scarce, but because few people are willing to accept the environmental pollution caused by their extraction.

The US can thus spare its own territory from mining by gaining access to Venezuela's minerals. The victims will be Venezuela's flora and fauna, as well as many people living in these areas.

What exactly was negotiated between Machado and the US government is unclear, but on January 3, 2026, 18 months after Maduro's election fraud, numerous media outlets reported his violent arrest through attacks by the US, after the US Navy had already deployed off Venezuela's coast weeks earlier.

The US government led by Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. Invading a country by force, publicly announcing the plundering of its oil reserves, and receiving applause for it: a strategically clever move, but morally very questionable.

The official reason given is the drug trafficking from Venezuela to the US and the fight against the drug cartels. However, only a small fraction of the drugs imported into the US originate in Venezuela. Only 1% of fentanyl, currently the deadliest and most problematic substance in the US drug problem, comes from Venezuela. The fight against drugs is thus being used here as a cheap excuse to legitimize the violent intervention in Venezuela and the violation of international law.

This doesn't interest the Venezuelans here in Bucaramanga much. I'm woken by shouts of joy this morning of January 3, 2026; the euphoria among Venezuelans here in Colombia is immense. Some give free rein to their joy, others are more reserved, but all rejoice at the downfall of the Maduro regime.

Most people here are aware that the US intervention wasn't motivated by altruism, but by pure self-interest. Yet many still hope for a positive future under US influence. Whether Venezuela will ever be free again in this situation remains to be seen. Hope springs eternal.